ON CULTURAL ESCAPE VELOCITIES; or, THE LAHARS ARE COMING

yesterday, a conversation about the earthquakes in japan and what great loss and damage the country continues to sustain despite its wealth, ingenuity and preparedness turned from the topic of that most recent disaster to the preparedness of portland and portlanders for an earthquake here. there's an earthquake coming. that's for sure. the argument over when and what to fear has always been one of sooner versus later. geologically, we're due. but with all the seismic havoc that's been wreaked on the world in the last few years, it's easier to think that the big one might arrive before we've left. no one questions that every house in the west hills will slide into forest park and over the 405, regardless of whether the quake we get is of the magnitude of that first one that shook japan. unfortunately, now that the game might be up, more serious inspection (and honest introspection -- the kind that deals in realities) reveals that most of the architecture and infrastructure here probably wouldn't withstand anything close to a number nine.

portland might need a shaking up of late (ha!), but no one wants to die crushed under piles of repurposed rubble. (and we probably wouldn't have the economic means in the aftermath to re-repurpose everything into homes for all of the people currently sharing portland's oldest buildings.) it's scary. and no, we don't have the money for earthquake insurance, especially now that the premiums have probably gone way up.

apparently, however, i should be more afraid of a volcanic eruption at mt. hood, at least according to a friend who told me that certain cliffs near the mountain were cooled lava flows from some serious magma action at yellowstone a million years ago or something. granted, we're also due for a volcano, but i argued that even if mt. hood were to explode explode, it wouldn't spew any lava the sixty miles to the city, and the lava wouldn't flow so quickly that we wouldn't have time enough for some sort of evacuation. right?

frightened, i took a few moments out of this morning to look up mt. hood's eruptive history. if the mountain is going to pop, it's going to rumble first. the united states geological survey monitors seismic activity under mt. hood in order to predict volcanic behavior. if there's going to be an eruption, it will be preceded by a swarm of earthquakes coincident with the rise of magma to the site of its release. earthquakes and volcanos. now that's a disaster. but, it doesn't sound like any lava from an eruption at mt. hood would make it anywhere close to portland and the pile of sticks that was once my apartment building that i somehow managed to escape before its collapse.

in fact, the science seems to show that the most destructive potential hazard of a big eruption at mt. hood would be the lahars, muddy debris flows that would flow down from the site of the eruption through any adjacent valleys -- particularly into rivers. lucky for portland, the geomancers predict that the lahars would only get as far as troutdale, charging along the sandy river until they spent themselves in battle with the columbia. and getting there would take them four hours. still, it's understandable that some portlanders might still run, just hopefully not for the hills, because if seismic activity at the mountain corresponded to anything more general and more epic, the hills would be set to fall. the river basin seems safe enough, though. the demolition of the trojan nuclear power plant was completed in 2006. just don't head too far north. seattle: if mt. rainier goes, it looks like you're screwed.